Friday, September 6, 2013

The Constitutional rule of law for war was skirted by President Clinton, reinforced by President Bush, and degraded by President Obama

PREFACE: This post is a sequel to Thoughts on the Syria Dilemma, where I responded to Byron Wong of bigWOWO's question, "I was just dropping in to check if you had an opinion on Syria." In the discussion that ensued at Byron's blog post, I expounded that President Bush's conscientious approach as Commander in Chief after 9/11 reinforced the Constitutional rule of law for war by reintegrating the legislative-executive process that President Clinton often skirted as Commander in Chief. However, the Democrats' false narrative of the Iraq intervention and President Obama's sloppy regressive approach as Commander in Chief has degraded the Constitutional rule of law for war that had been upgraded by President Bush.



Selected from the discussion thread at bigWOWO:

Byron: “I don’t know if “rule of law” really applies to war in general.”

It does apply to US military action, but not in the way that a lot of people have been led to believe by the false narrative that was promulgated against the Iraq mission and President Bush.

I was surprised by Kaufman’s analysis, too. I had assumed there was a stronger statutory and policy basis in place for President Obama’s proposed action. It is normal for the US to act to enforce an “international norm”, but it’s also normal for the US to develop a legal-rational foundation for that action. Obama simply neglected to build the legal-rational foundation to act on Syria. I’ll talk more about that below.

Your presumption is correct that the US President is not restrained on a short leash as Commander in Chief. It’s a short list, of course, but President Clinton is the exemplar of a post-Cold War US President who deployed the US military in a piecemeal, ad hoc, creatively (Russians say il-) legal manner. Clinton was my CinC and I can expound on why his deployments were unpopular within the military, but suffice to say that the changing character of world affairs since the Cold War compelled Presidential deployment of the US military to become more fluid.

Before 9/11, Bush intended to rein in the mission creep he inherited from Clinton. Reducing the global US military footprint was corporate-trained, famously clinical Secretary Rumsfeld’s primary project. But 9/11 upended Bush’s initial agenda and altered his worldview. Most notably, 9/11 replaced Bush’s pre-9/11 IR realist assessment that the Iraq problem was ‘contained’ with Clinton’s liberal assessment that the situation with Saddam was a “clear and present danger to the stability of the Persian Gulf and the safety of people everywhere.”

Bush’s clearest repudiation of his pre-9/11 IR realist worldview also affirmed his post-9/11 liberal worldview: “For decades, free nations tolerated oppression in the Middle East for the sake of stability. In practice, this approach brought little stability, and much oppression. So I have changed this policy.”

Which brings me to the point of the Kaufman citation.

Although Bush came around to Clinton’s liberal worldview after 9/11 and built upon what Clinton did right, such as Clinton’s Iraq and counter-terror policies, Bush also tried to redress Clinton’s two most criticized faults as Commander-in-Chief. One Clinton fault was deploying the military for justifiable reasons, at least from a liberal point of view, but with politically based limits that curtailed their real effectiveness. In contrast, after 9/11, Bush attempted to rationally match means to achieve the ends of American liberal foreign policy.

More relevant to this discussion, the other Clinton fault was Clinton’s legal creativity in stretching the Presidential authority to deploy the US military. Clinton’s ad hoc approach to foreign affairs can be justified by the seismic shift in the world that was happening rapidly on his watch; Clinton was reacting, and he ultimately proved unable or incapable of moving American leadership ahead of evolving world affairs. The hope of the ‘Washington Consensus’ that excited liberals around the world at the end of the Cold War was largely eroded during the Clinton presidency. The global questioning of the US ‘hyperpower’ didn’t start with Bush after 9/11; it started with Clinton.

In contrast, Bush, perhaps due to his business and governing background, was conscientious about the process of the chief executive working with the ‘Board’, whether that be a corporate board or government legislature. What struck me most about Bush after 9/11 was that he sought Congressional and UN certifications even when he could have – and I argue should have – simply relied on Clinton’s precedents. Moreover, with the Iraq intervention, the new certifications sought by Bush did not substantially change the policy, US statutes, and UNSC resolutions on Iraq that were already operative via Clinton.

Was Bush simply a more ethically conscientious President than Clinton? Yes, but I think the answer is also pragmatic.

Clinton treated the legislative-executive process as a necessary hindrance to his authority as Commander-in-Chief. He was right; it is, by checks-and-balances design. In contrast, Bush moved to reaffirm the legislative-executive process in his authority as Commander-in-Chief. After 9/11, Bush understood that the global confrontation that was heralded on 9/11 started long before 9/11 and would last long past 9/11. He understood that Clinton’s ad hoc method of deploying the US military, while it worked in the near term, was a politically unhealthy way for the government of a liberal democratic nation to conduct a long, full-spectrum struggle. So, although Bush could have – and I argue should have – relied on Clinton’s precedents, Bush tried to reboot the system after Clinton’s ad hoc approach by reintegrating the legislative-executive process in Bush’s authority as Commander-in-Chief.

It’s sad and unfortunate that rather than work with Bush to prepare the US government for a long-term leadership challenge, the Democrats decided to prioritize their immediate parochial partisan interests, instead.

To clarify, the UN has zero sovereign authority over any US military deployment. Every US military deployment can only be authorized under US sovereign authority. As any libertarian can explain, no international norm nor even agreement contains the higher authority either to compel the US to deploy our military or to stand down our military. Whatever enforcement power exists in international law is based on the participation of sovereign national authorities, most notably to this point, the US.

However, the US has been the hegemon of a particularly styled group of independent nations – the ‘free world’ – and that carries with it leadership responsibilities, if not compulsive duties. While international law has no power over the US in and of itself, the soft, fuzzy, and gray area of international law provides us an organizing framework for international relations with the attendant leverages.

Wrapping up this comment regarding Kaufman’s analysis and Obama’s proposed action, the key is that a US military action must be based on a legal-rational foundation with US sovereign authority in order to be legal. While the original Constitutional concept of a Congressional ‘declaration of war’ became impractical sometime in the 19th century as the US evolved as a permanent global presence, Congress has adapted by providing certifications that generally empower, within limits, the US President to take military action without impractical legislative micromanagement, adjusted by various War Powers Acts. Since WW2, beginning with President Truman in Korea, US Presidents have at times deployed the US military ahead of Congressional certification as a practical matter and then returned to Congress as soon as practical for the normal legislative-executive certification process. But those deployments always took place with existing legal-rational chained links to US sovereign authority, such as Congressionally certified SEATO treaty, NATO treaty, UN covenant. Even Clinton’s Balkans deployment that set a very controversial precedent by bypassing Congress and the UNSC was legally, if creatively, tethered to Congressional prior approval by the NATO treaty.

As with other of Bush’s hard-won gains as Commander-in-Chief, Obama has undone Bush’s reintegration of the legislative-executive process and, instead, returned to Clinton’s ad hoc approach.

The practical advantage of Clinton’s ad hoc approach is more flexibility to act free of legislative interference. The practical disadvantage of Clinton’s ad hoc approach is less ability to order an effective action should the needs of the mission exceed the resources available to the vested authority of the US President. Indeed, Clinton acted freely but often ineffectively as Commander-in-Chief, whereas Congress often interfered with Bush’s foreign affairs to detrimental effect, but also provided the resources when the needs of the mission exceeded the resources available to the US President. Obama has followed Clinton’s lead by acting more freely but also more ineffectively compared to Bush.

Clinton operated on the outer limit of Presidential authority and we became accustomed to it. However, Kaufman’s analysis shows that when Obama failed to acquire the partnership of NATO, UN, or another chained link to prior Congressional approval, Obama’s initial impulse to order an attack on Syria failed to meet the minimum threshold of US sovereign authority.

The head-shaking aspect of Obama’s political mess on Syria is it was an easily avoidable mistake. Obama has talked about the Syria problem for long enough. At the same time he was talking about it, he simply needed to lay a normal legal-rational foundation to act. He neglected to do so. Separate from the wisdom of a US military action that knowingly assists al Qaeda, Obama’s belated decision to go to Congress for certification should provide the missing legal-rational link.

I won’t ever say my fellow Columbia alumnus is stupid. The President is not stupid. He’s just not as conscientious in his duties as Bush. But Obama did make an obvious, stupid, unnecessary, humiliating mistake on the world’s center stage that has real consequences. Congress now is compelled to help Obama try to clean up the mess he made for us. I believe Obama’s reliance on charismatic authority (I recommend you view the link I provided) caused him to blur in his mind even Clinton’s creative stretching of Presidential military authority.

The false narrative of the Iraq mission and slander of President Bush has metastasized from a sociopathic partisan grab at domestic political power into principles that are actually guiding – and harming – our foreign affairs. In order to restore rational decision-making to our liberal American foreign policy, the first necessary step for conscientious liberals is a mea culpa in which we admit openly that Bush was right. Without that baseline admission and cognitive reset by liberals, we’ll keep going the wrong way and not understand why. ...

Add: I don’t believe Senator McCain realizes that President Obama neglected to lay a basic legal-rational foundation for US military action on Syria. Other than Jean Kaufman, it doesn’t seem like anyone else has caught the oversight, either. It’ll be made a moot point if and when Congress certifies. But if Congress doesn’t certify, Obama fails to acquire any other chained link to prior Congressional approval, and the President attacks Syria only on the isolated basis of his own authority, it will be an unConstitutional action. Perhaps no legal action will ever be brought against Obama for it, but I guess some anti-American lawfare activist somewhere would catch it. ...

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Byron,

I am serious about the comparison.

To repeat, the point I’m making is that Clinton set a practical precedent for Commander-in-Chief that reduced the legislative-executive process in the Presidential military authority.

In addition, because Clinton had already laid an operative legal-rational foundation with his counter-terror and Iraq policy, it was not actually necessary for Bush to engage the legislative-executive process – at all – to respond to 9/11 or on Iraq. For updates to Clinton’s legal-rational foundation, Bush simply could have used the executive administrative process.

In other words, before Bush went to Congress, military action was already certified by US sovereign authority. Bush and Clinton were authorized to put boots on the ground in Afghanistan years before 9/11. Clinton established the preemption doctrine that Bush was later attacked on. In fact, Clinton had bombed Afghanistan, which means, as was the case for Iraq, Clinton had already laid the foundation and set the stage for ground invasion.

In the wake of 9/11 with great pressure to respond quickly and decisively, it would have been justified, easier, and even sensible for a military operation, for Bush to adopt Clinton’s ad hoc approach as Commander-in-Chief. Unlike Obama’s proposed attack on Syria, the foundation was already properly laid to attack Afghanistan.

Would anyone have seriously protested if Bush had used Clinton’s established, quicker ad hoc approach to respond to 9/11? If so, they would have had no legal leg to stand on. And, as you point out, there was no political need to go to Congress. Congress would have backed Bush and opened the purse to attack al Qaeda and their Taliban hosts, regardless.

Yet Bush didn’t take the quicker, easier, and – I argue – more sensible ad hoc approach that Clinton had set up. Instead, Bush scrupulously reintegrated the legislative-executive process in his authority as Commander-in-Chief. It wasn’t necessary. It was a reset of Presidential approach.

One could say Bush’s sense of ethics as President was naïve, and one would have been proven right in so saying, but Bush also understood that ad hoc efficiency in the short run breaks down in the long run as a governing approach in a legal-rational system . . . as Obama is finding out with his Syria mess.

My point is that Obama had a choice of legislative-executive approaches as Commander-in-Chief: the pre-9/11 ad hoc approach that Bush inherited from Clinton and the post-9/11 reintegrated approach that Obama inherited from Bush. Obama opted for Clinton’s easier ad hoc approach despite that 9/11 had rendered the Clinton doctrine (as distinct from his policies) obsolete.

This isn’t a novel concept for political scientists, by the way. Again, I recommend you view the link I provided on Weber’s charismatic authority type, which describes Obama.

The legality of Obama’s proposed action on Syria is more than a serious question, it’s a consequential question. The mistake you’re making, Byron, is conflating the general prohibition on NBC use with the legal-rational procedure to act to enforce it. A law without an actionable law enforcement procedure is just an opinion. You’re a parent and an executive with management responsibility, both professionally and with activist organizations, right? If so, then you understand the concept. Normally, the two go hand in hand; Obama’s failure to lay a proper legal-rational foundation is abnormal. The point of Kaufman’s analysis doesn’t show that NBC use is not prohibited, but rather that Obama made the incredible error of moving on the world’s center stage to act *with military action* to enforce the prohibition while lacking a sufficient legal-rational foundation to act.

Obama didn’t just let other nations off the hook on Syria; he neglected to nail up the enforcement hook to begin with, which has made it easy for the international community to decline the President’s invitation to help attack Syria. In contrast, the enforcement hook on Saddam had been nailed up by Bush Senior and upgraded by Clinton continually since 1990-1991.

Especially with the practical considerations that Assad has an effective web of sponsors, Obama is proposing a course with Syria that knowingly and obviously strengthens the position of Islamic terrorists – as though Obama’s post-9/11 historical conclusion is that our limited aid in the 1980s to the Mujahedeen fighting the Soviets didn’t go nearly far enough –[,] and Obama lacks a Bush-level preparation to mitigate the potential consequences, he needed to have his legal-rational Ps and Qs in impeccable order from the beginning.

He didn’t. Now Obama is sloppily backtracking, trying to fill in the legal-rational gap after already making a mess of it on the world stage, and begging Congress to clean it up for him.

I agree with you that the world retreating from Obama’s red line on Syrian NBC use is a failure of principle. But it’s also a failure of American leadership. The independent, self-interested nations of the ‘free world’ have always relied on America, specifically the US President, leading strong from the front for their solidarity. From the start, the international community as an effective enforcement entity has always been an illusion kept alive by American leadership, from the moment that Truman sent Task Force Smith into Korea on a suicide mission to validate the UN.

The anti-Bush notion that America could, instead, follow the international community or ‘lead from behind’ was always a lie but it was a tolerable lie as long as it was limited to domestic partisan politics. But Obama’s actual incorporation of the lie as a guiding principle in our foreign affairs has caused an anomic breakdown of the international community.

Byron, consider the Presidency as a hereditary course rather than unrelated episodes. Yes, Bush did face different conditions with the 9/11 attacks than Obama is facing with his Syria mess. That’s ordinary – Eisenhower faced different conditions than Truman. Yet Eisenhower didn’t need to refight WW2 or the Korean War because he built on the gains of his predecessors and adapted the Presidential course he inherited from Truman at the dawn of the Cold War.

Bush conscientiously laid a foundation for effective American leadership after 9/11. If Obama and the Democrats had properly supported Bush in solidarity, today’s breakdown of American leadership would have been prevented. But if the Democrats had supported Bush, they risked not winning the White House and Congressional seats, which they needed to advance their domestic agenda. That was the trade-off.

President Obama is dealing with the consequences of the Democrats poisoning the well of American government against his predecessor. Even so, when Obama assumed office, he held the power to clean the well of American government that he had helped poison. If President Obama had simply claimed solidarity with President Bush at the start of his Presidency, adapted Bush’s course, and built on Bush’s gains – especially since Obama retained Bush’s liberal foreign policy goals – American leadership would be healthy now. ...

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Regarding your point on the economy, I’m a poli sci guy, not a finance guy nor an economist, and the issue is tangential to the Syria intervention discussion. But it seems to me as a layman that the cause of the stunning and sudden economic collapse – ie, the cascade effect of risky loans insured by federal law then bundled as financial products that exponentially multiplied the effect of an otherwise ordinary real-estate downturn – didn’t originate with the Bush administration and had inputs from both sides. My understanding is that during the Clinton administration the Democrats warped the mortgage market by encouraging and insuring loans to high-risk borrowers while the Republicans advocated for looser market controls, although there was bipartisan cooperation on both factors. The financial market adapted to the high-risk loans and the course of the economic collapse was thus set. In the short term, the freer financial flows artificially boosted the economy during the Clinton administration. But, in the long term, we paid the price for the fundamental flaws in the financial model that had facilitated impressive short-term growth in the Clinton years, and the problem became manifest as the shock at the tail end of the Bush administration. If I recall correctly, Bush responded with stimulus packages that presaged Obama’s stimulus packages. The Clinton through pre-collapse Bush economy was raised on a bubble and should not be viewed as a success model. The larger, more complicated challenge we face is correcting the fundaments of our economy, whether by centralized organization or a Smithian market correction that is swept clean of warping effects like government-insured high-risk loans. But I’m just a poli sci guy, so what do I know. You’re finance, right? Did I get the basics right, at least?

I repeat the point that Obama should have adapted Bush’s course and built on Bush’s gains as Commander-in-Chief just as Eisenhower did with Truman. Recall that Truman left office as one of the most unpopular Presidents in American history and Ike actually campaigned on the platform he would end the Korean War. Yet Ike didn’t pull out of Korea nor Asia nor Europe at a point where our Cold War foreign policy was only taking shape but had not yet been set in stone, very similar to the 9/11-era conditions inherited by Obama. The difference is Ike had a serious long view of the liberal American role in the dawning Cold War just as Bush had a serious long view of the liberal American role after 9/11. Unlike Bush, it doesn’t appear that Obama is serious about long-term liberal American leadership in the world.

Clinton explains the greater American leadership context for taking military action against Saddam:
In the century we’re leaving, America has often made the difference between chaos and community; fear and hope. Now, in a new century, we’ll have a remarkable opportunity to shape a future more peaceful than the past — but only if we stand strong against the enemies of peace.
As you know, the only alternatives to decisively confronting Saddam was an indefinite ad hoc crumbling, provocative, and harmful status quo that had no solution in its concept, or freeing a noncompliant Saddam. You know that the US and UN had no burden of proof on Iraq’s WMD and the entire burden of proof was on Saddam. You know Saddam was both established and presumed guilty on WMD as the basis for the Gulf War ceasefire and UNSC resolutions enforced by Bush Senior, Clinton, and Bush. You know that, by procedure, our intelligence on Iraq’s WMD could not trigger military enforcement and only Saddam’s failure to comply with the weapons, humanitarian, and the other operative UNSC resolutions could trigger military enforcement. You know the same standard for compliance triggered Clinton’s Op Desert Fox and Bush’s Op Iraqi Freedom. You also know the false notion that Saddam was innocent on WMD (which he wasn’t) ran counter to the foundational premises, the course, and history of the Iraq mission that Bush inherited from Clinton.

You know all of this. Why do you insist on pretending you don’t?

Put yourself in Bush’s shoes and make your choice:

If you believed Saddam had rehabilitated his regime in secret, on his own, and was actually innocent (which he wasn’t), then you advocated for freeing a noncompliant Saddam from the ‘containment’ *despite* that he had again failed a “last chance” opportunity granted by a US President to meet his burden of proof on WMD, and setting aside the weapons resolutions, Saddam had made no move to resolve the UN’s operative humanitarian and terrorism prohibitions on Iraq. Correct?

Or, you advocated, instead, for indefinitely maintaining the ad hoc crumbling, provocative, and harmful status quo with Iraq with no solution *despite* your belief that Saddam was innocent on WMD. Is that correct?

Byron, it’s not your fault the Democrats duped you with a false narrative that caused your misunderstanding of the Iraq mission. You’re not the only American who the Democrats bamboozled. But your misunderstanding doesn’t change the Iraq problem that Bush inherited as President, the price and danger of the status quo with Iraq, nor the procedure to solve the Iraq problem that Clinton had developed and passed on to Bush.

As far as the relationship between the Iraq problem and 9/11, it’s not a main part of my explanation of the Iraq mission since the Iraq problem was fully mature before 9/11. But Clinton did explain the relationship best. ...

The link between 9/11 and Iraq is not a major part of my take on the issue because the Iraq problem, including Saddam’s guilt on terrorism, and procedures to resolve the problem were mature by the close of the Clinton administration, before 9/11. President Bush’s implementation of the preemptive doctrine in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks was an extension of President Clinton’s preemptive doctrine in response to the escalating Islamic terrorist campaign that culminated in the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Bush administration did not claim Saddam was behind the 9/11 attacks. However, the 9/11 attacks did significantly boost the urgency and political will to resolve the Iraq problem expeditiously. President Clinton explained the link between 9/11 and Iraq:
Noting that Bush had to be "reeling" in the wake of the attacks of September 11, 2001, Clinton said Bush's first priority was to keep al Qaeda and other terrorist networks from obtaining "chemical and biological weapons or small amounts of fissile material."
"That's why I supported the Iraq thing. There was a lot of stuff unaccounted for," Clinton said in reference to Iraq and the fact that U.N. weapons inspectors left the country in 1998.
"So I thought the president had an absolute responsibility to go to the U.N. and say, 'Look, guys, after 9/11, you have got to demand that Saddam Hussein lets us finish the inspection process.' You couldn't responsibly ignore [the possibility that] a tyrant had these stocks," Clinton said.

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As far as my opinion on the legality of Obama bombing Syria without Congressional approval, I’ll restate. For the President to order military action outside of a threat to the US, which can include US holdings outside the homeland – eg, an attack on a US embassy or a US flagged cargo ship – there needs to be a link to US sovereign authority via Congressional certification.

Since the US became a permanent global presence, the original legislative-executive process of Congress declaring war has become impractical. Thus, we’ve resorted to chained links to US sovereign authority and general authorizations for the US President to deploy the military, with Congress retaining various controls and limits.

The US military can be and has been used to enforce international norms. But there still needs to be a link, however Clintonian-creatively stretched, to Congressional certification.

The basic difference between the Syria and Iraq problems, other than the thick stack of Congressional certifications that Bush inherited from Clinton and Bush Senior, is that Iraq threatened regional allies and US interests. Therefore, underlying the equally thick stack of international norms enforced in Iraq by Bush and the humanitarian scope of our post-war mission in Iraq was a foundation of traditional US security interests.

(Interesting Clinton trick: Clinton made sure to include Saddam’s firing on US aircraft enforcing the no-fly zone as a trigger for military enforcement. Presumably, if Saddam had proven compliance on the weapons resolutions, which of course he didn’t, the no-fly zone would still need to be maintained because it was enforcing the humanitarian resolutions, not the weapons resolutions. And, of course, Saddam considered the no-fly zone to be an illegal infringement of Iraq’s sovereignty. In other words, Clinton had set up a wide range of triggers so that once a US President decided to give Saddam his next “last chance” to comply, the US was going to invade Iraq one way or the other short of Saddam totally changing his regime. Clinton had shaped the Iraq problem as Saddam’s regime itself, so that Iraq’s behavior – ie, across-the-board compliance – was the central issue, not Iraq’s demonstrable possession of WMD. The Democrats knew this, yet misrepresented the Iraq problem anyway.)

The Syria problem – as large, horrifying, and crying out for effective humanitarian intervention as it is – is an internal conflict, and that changes the calculus by stripping away the usual Congressional certifications contained in traditional US security interests. Therefore, another Congressional certification needs to be found for Obama to order a military strike if Congress fails to approve his proposal. According to Kaufman’s analysis, no such certification exists in the international ‘laws’ related to NBC use and current Congressional statements on the Syria conflict.

The only Congressional certification I can think to apply is the 2001 AUMF if Obama can draw a cognizable link between Syria’s NBC use and terrorism. Although Assad is fighting terrorists, he is also a sponsor of terrorism and is being aided by a terrorist sponsor with its cadre of terrorist groups. Therefore, although the alleged NBC use at bar was not a terrorist act, it’s plausible Obama can make a Clintonian-creative legal argument that stretches the authority of the 2001 AUMF to military action against Syria. To that end, Obama did include a terrorism element in his recent public argument for military action against Syria.

Of course, Senator McCain may know an applicable Congressional certification that Kaufman doesn’t know. ...

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My last, thematic thought for today on your blog related to the Syria dilemma:

Byron, as a liberal, as long as you block yourself from understanding everything that Bush did right after 9/11 as a liberal American President, you will block yourself from understanding everything that Obama has done wrong by the liberal standard.

You’re fighting it because it challenges your basic political worldview, but you need to accept that the Democrats lied to you. The Democrats have been corrupted; they’re not genuine liberals anymore. You have kids. ... If you want your kids to grow up to inherit a liberal world, you need to let go of your partisan mental blocks and figure out who is genuinely and effectively fighting for the liberal world you want for them. Until you do, we’ll keep going the wrong way and you won’t understand why. ...

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Byron,

Except you were wrong and Bush was right by the liberal standard, most of all with the Iraq mission correctly understood. The liberal foreign policy choices you say you support are effective by that standard. As long as you refuse to admit your mistake and accept Bush was right, your deviation from Bush will continue to sabotage your advocacy of liberal foreign policy.

Stipulated about our recent economic history, although I don't recall that Bush's statement about maintaining general economic activity was a radical call to action that fomented an extreme nation-wide spike of loan-shark credit and mindless wanton spending that toppled our economy. We weren't coming off the Great Depression on 9/11; our current consumer and debt culture started in the 80s and escalated in the 90s. If there is a latter-day root cause, it was the bipartisan market-warping promotion of unaffordable home ownership, not eating out and shopping at Walmart.

Be that as it may, the economy didn't compel Obama to order our troops home from Iraq (until he bungled the SOFA negotiation) nor stop him from plussing up in Afghanistan. The economy didn't make Obama shut down Gitmo, stop him from dramatically increasing drone assassinations or bombing Libya on the pretense of R2P until regime change, and it's not stopping Obama from trying to bomb Syria. Obama is still spending mountains of tax dollars as Commander-in-Chief. Which means the Presidential practical areas of (military affairs) foreign policy and domestic economy are still distinct at this point of American history, at least outside of partisan conflations made for parochial political purposes.

Again, I'm not talking about episodic partisan climate as far as Bush's legislative-executive approach as Commander-in-Chief after 9/11. He set a baseline for how to do the CinC job in the 9/11 era. Although Clinton's pre-9/11 ad hoc approach would have been easier, quicker, and - I argue - more sensible for a President at war, Bush understood that reintegrating the legislative-executive process as CinC was a healthier approach for a legal-rational system for the long difficult challenge we entered on 9/11.

In other words, Bush did the heavy lifting in setting up a healthier legislative-executive SOP for Obama. Obama simply had to claim his solidarity with Bush and follow Bush's lead. Instead, he set back Bush's progress by opting for Clinton's pre-9/11 ad hoc approach. Obama's choice makes sense for a Weberian charismatic authority type.

The type of liberal foreign policy you've advocated on your blog falls within the liberal interventionist or liberal internationalist or neo-liberal or neo-conservative school. I'm disappointed that you stubbornly cling to the Democrats' false narrative on Iraq even though it undermines the liberal foreign policy you advocate.

Our intervention in Iraq enforced all the international norms you believe in. After 11 years of Saddam refusing to comply with the Gulf War ceasefire and UNSC resolutions, the exhaustion of every measure short of our last credible military threat to compel Saddam's compliance, Bush acted decisively to bring Iraq into compliance in order to restore credibility to the enforcement of international norms for the 9/11 era. It was up to Saddam to dispel the credible military threat simply by complying to standard, which he should have done immediately in 1991, let alone 2002-2003.

However, at the same time that Bush was trying to fix the international enforcement of international norms, the Democrats were doing their best to break it in order to gain an upper hand in domestic politics. When the Democrats - full of passionate intensity - lied to you, America, and the world about our Iraq mission, they also undermined the enforcement of all the international norms and humanitarian peace-building objectives that were intrinsic to the Iraq mission.

You blame partisan politics for Obama's difficulty over his Syria proposal. In fact, Obama's difficulty is a direct consequence of the long-term damage caused by the Democrats' propaganda against the Iraq mission to the political process and public perception necessary for the enforcement of international norms.

Excerpt from 10 year anniversary of the start of Operation Iraqi Freedom: thoughts:
I also said this to Professor Nacos:

What's called neo-conservatism is just the progressive (interventionalist) liberalism of Wilson, FDR, and Truman, renamed. The bashing of neo-conservatism by self-described Western liberals, therefore, has led to the frustrating, self-defeating spectacle of influential people speaking liberal platitudes but quixotically opposing our definitively liberal strategy in the War on Terror. The effect of these liberals' tragic hypocrisy has been the degradation of the Western liberalizing influence on the illiberal regions of the world.

By the same token, an equally damaging effect of the attacks by self-described liberals on our liberal strategy has been the degradation within Western societies of the domestic understanding and support we need to adequately sustain the war/peace-building strategy endorsed by Presidents Bush and Obama. Therefore, a critical task of President Obama is to fix the deep damage done to his and Bush's foreign policy goals by Senator/Candidate Obama and other Bush critics.



Related comments from a CNN discussion thread, not the bigWOWO discussion thread:

The following exchange from other users was removed by moderation. That's odd, there's nothing inflammatory in it, and it's more thoughtful than 99.7% of the usual internet spew.

"The plan for Syria's chemical weapons can be a success - if 'success' is defined correctly. With Iraq, President Bush faithfully and successfully followed the procedure to resolve the Iraq problem that he inherited from President Clinton. What did that include? Regime change mandate. A credible military threat that was the next step up from Op Desert Fox’s penultimate bombing – ie, ground invasion. A very high and strict standard of proof for Saddam to meet regarding Iraq's "unaccounted for" proscribed weapons that had been elevated during the Cllinton administration in response to Saddam’s belligerence, resistance, and exposed evasions. A broad spectrum of requirements for Iraq under the UNSC resolutions, covering issues such as Iraq's humanitarian and terrorism problems, that extended beyond proscribed weapons. So how can President Obama succeed with Syria where Presidents Bush Senior, Clinton, and Bush ‘failed’ with Iraq? (… said for sake of argument. We actually succeeded resolving the Iraq problem under Bush by achieving every requirement set forth by Clinton - ie, Iraq in compliance, Iraq no longer a threat, and regime change.) Simple – by making Syria’s test easier and more limited than Iraq’s test. Lower the proof standard. Narrow the requirements for Syria, eg, studiously ignore the humanitarian and terrorism problems with Syria that were bases for strict requirements for Iraq. Avoid placing too heavy a proof burden and presumption of guilt on Syria. Essentially, Obama can succeed with Syria's chemical weapons by adopting the position of Saddam’s defenders in 2002-2003, which I guess Obama has done by ceding the lead on Syria to Russia.

AcidRed

Eric

an hour ago

If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with BS? Must have been Clinton's fault, right?
Reply

Eric

AcidRed

37 minutes ag

The Iraq problem? Clearly, that was Saddam's fault, not the fault of any American President. Saddam could and should have complied with the Gulf War ceasefire and UNSC resolutions in 1991 - before Clinton was elected President - let alone fail repeatedly during the Clinton administration, thus compelling a stricter standard of proof, and then fail again to meet Iraq's burden of proof in 2002-2003. Saddam's behavior compelled Clinton to classify the situation with Iraq "a clear and present danger to the stability of the Persian Gulf and the safety of people everywhere" and to establish US policy on Iraq that "The hard fact is that so long as Saddam remains in power, he threatens the well-being of his people, the peace of his region, the security of the world. The best way to end that threat once and for all is with the new Iraqi government, a government ready to live in peace with its neighbors, a government that respects the rights of its people."

It can certainly be argued that since Clinton set the bar for resolving the Iraq problem that Bush followed faithfully, then Clinton should have resolved the Iraq problem on his watch rather than kick the can. But to Clinton's credit (not "fault"), he established the laws, policy, precedent, and procedure necessary for his successor to resolve the Iraq problem. The Iraq problem was made by Saddam. But to resolve the Iraq problem, Bush followed the prescription made by Clinton.



Related thought from my 05JUL13 thoughts of the day:

Related to "Defining the problem frames the solution", one of my basic leadership principles, the ends do justify the means. Saying the ends don't justify the means is as silly as saying that how you play the game matters more than winning or losing. Means should be rationally matched to the ends. However, in a multi-dimensional competitive arena, there are simultaneous different ends. They may conflict. The means that are necessary to achieve one end may undermine another end. For example, in a rules-bound arena, cheating may garner near-term victories that are necessary, but also cause long-term defeat when the cheating is uncovered and punished. It comes down to smart rational trade-offs and making mitigations and compensations. Ethics must be weighed rationally as a factor of varying weight depending on the contours of the competition. In the ultimate judgement, the concrete gains from victory are what count, but the competitor must be clear about his ends and the definition of victory in order to choose his means rationally. Thought inspired by this documentary on the Soviet defeat of the Japanese in Manchuria.



Also see The Forward Party should reconceive the Iran issue with the premise that we were right on Iraq, which is the truth and The international law way to solve rogue actors like Maduro without enabling China is the Gulf War ceasefire formula.

Monday, September 2, 2013

Thoughts on the Syria dilemma

PREFACE: Scroll past my commentary for links to additional data and discourse.

Byron Wong of bigWOWO stopped in to ask, "I was just dropping in to check if you had an opinion on Syria." My response outgrew the comment section and I may tack on more thoughts as they surface, so I made it a post:

Hi Byron,

I have a few scattered thoughts, not yet a yay/nay opinion on President Obama's proposal.

It's odd that the Assad regime would deviate from pattern at this point of the conflict and resort to a chemical attack. But let's assume for the sake of discussion they crossed the red line and the chemical attack is not a frame-up by "rebels" that include Islamic terrorists who have a known penchant for propaganda-purposed mass murder.

As far as the Islamic terrorists in Syria, I haven't looked into it, but I assume the bombings that have resumed in Iraq are a spillover effect of the Syria conflict.

I understand and don't disagree with Obama's basic position that, simply, a zero-tolerance community rule has been broken, and the rule must be enforced irrespective of context and other considerations or else the rule will lose its legitimacy throughout the community.

But the context and other considerations matter to everyone else. People and media will probably want to compare President Bush's Iraq intervention and the Syria problem, but other than condemning chemical attacks on civilians in the Middle East, they're much more different than similar from a policy standpoint.

The closer comparison is Obama's Libya intervention, where he bypassed Congress, and the Syria problem. On their face, the Libya and Syria situations seem similar. The Syria problem has the added dimensions of a chemical attack and a much higher human cost, which imply Obama ought to be able to rally an international response along similar lines as the Libya intervention. But the players align differently for the Syria problem, and in the interim, Obama's fundamentally flawed Libya and Middle East policies and overall personal weakness in the competitive global arena have been exposed, thus diminishing his (and American) influence. In particular, Obama's use of the already legally questionable and novel Responsibility to Protect doctrine as cover to effect regime change in Libya likely undermined his ability to rally support for military action against Syria. Add: I was told the European support for the Libya operation followed European oil interests in Libya, but that strikes me as an incomplete explanation given that opponents of the US-led regime change in Iraq sided with their oil interests.

If the enforcement action is calibrated to low enough risk to assuage domestic concern and low enough impact to avoid a retaliatory response, then does it really qualify as enforcement, let alone punishment? It seems Obama just wants something on the record saying Syria was punished rather than something effective that would require greater risk.

Obama seems intent on using President Clinton's record as his model. His Syria intervention proposal is reminiscent of Clinton's punitive missile strikes. However, those actions accomplished little and caused more harm in the long term. Clinton's disastrous practice of talking loudly and carrying a small stick undermined US authority, encouraged the escalation of al Qaeda's anti-US campaign, and informed Saddam's calculation in his game of brinkmanship chicken against the US-led enforcement of the Gulf War ceasefire and UNSC resolutions.

9/11 rendered the Clinton doctrine obsolete. After 9/11, Bush rationally matched means to the ends of American liberal foreign policy and built on what Clinton did right, eg, the Bush Iraq and counter-terror policies were logical extensions of the Clinton Iraq and counter-terror policies. Obama ostensibly retained Clinton and Bush's liberal foreign policy goals, but his deviations from Bush's rational course have resulted in irrational failures.

Clinton at least was savvy enough to fake a paper-tiger liberal foreign policy that delayed the price of his decisions for the next President to pay. After 9/11 exposed the price of the Clinton doctrine, Bush moved to rectify Clinton's mistakes, but Obama has since squandered the international political leverage that was hard and expensively earned back by the Bush administration.

Obama should have, instead, adapted Bush's course and built on Bush's gains like President Eisenhower adapted and built on the course he inherited from the Truman administration. Better decisions by Obama upstream could have prevented or at least mitigated the downstream compounding effects we see today and maintained American leverage in the situation.

At this point, America's foreign policy in the Middle East appears unfocused and feckless. The most useful thing Congress can make of the Syria dilemma is to open a referendum on Obama’s foreign policy and make him explain why and to what purpose. Use the opportunity to begin a reset of our foreign policy by nailing down Obama's long-term, big-picture plan for Syria, the region, and how his proposed Syria intervention fits into it all.

It won't happen, but I would like to see the opportunity used to correct the Democrats' false narrative of the Iraq intervention and discredit the false narrative's progenitors. Doing so would go a long way towards restoring rational decision-making in our foreign policy. The false narrative of the Iraq intervention has metastasized from a propaganda device to manipulate voters in order to gain domestic political power into a fundamental guiding principle of American foreign policy that has led to real harm.

This also won't happen, but in order for me to take Obama seriously again on foreign policy, this is what I need to hear from him or something to the same effect:
President Bush was right and I was wrong. I'm sorry. And I'm here today — humbly — to ask for the support of my fellow Americans to help me fix the damage I've caused.
It won't ever happen, but that's what it would take.

White House: 30AUG13 Background Briefing by Senior Administration Officials on Syria. What stands out in the White House briefing on Syria is the strong statement of the US national interest in the Syria situation that's alarmingly juxtaposed with the weak intervention actions so far by the US. The result is the US has been undeniably involved in the Syria situation, but not in ways that positively or constructively affect it. Obama has put in place a formula for US involvement in the Syria situation that is worse than plausibly deniable involvement or omitted American leadership. It's a formula for visibly failing and ineffectual American intervention in a situation that Obama has determined holds high stakes for the US.

An important consideration of the proposed punitive action in Syria is the follow-up if the proposed punitive action in Syria is effective – despite President Obama’s apparent desire that it be ineffective – in giving a decisive advantage to the Syrian “rebels” in the conflict. If that happens, we need to be prepared to manage the post-Assad post-war in Syria. Left to their own devices, the victorious Syrian “rebels” can create a humanitarian crisis in post-Assad Syria similar to the humanitarian crisis caused by Islamic terrorists in post-Saddam Iraq. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear President Obama is willing to manage the post-war in Syria, even should his proposed punitive strike play an instrumental role in Syrian regime change. The US has not helped Iraq stem the resurgence of terrorist bombings in Iraq that are likely a spillover from the Syrian conflict and unlikely to abate should the Syrian “rebels” win. The US has not substantially helped with the post-war transition in Libya despite playing an instrumental role in the Libyan regime change — and Libya is struggling. An action of the type proposed by President Obama, even if meant only as a limited political statement, has consequences. If the statement must be made, then the consequences must be dealt with. President Bush was prepared to deal with those consequences. Based on his record as President and his current proposal, it does not appear President Obama shares his predecessor’s sense of ethical leadership responsibility.

Jean Kaufman reveals that Obama's red line and proposed punitive action on Syrian NBC use rests on surprisingly shaky statutory and policy grounds. That's not to say Obama is wrong on the general principle of prohibiting NBC use, but the modern Western norm still demands a legal-rational foundation. In contrast, the US intervention in Iraq was based on a redundantly overflowing US statutory, UNSC resolution, and policy foundation that was specifically tailored to the Iraq problem. President Clinton, despite his shortcomings on effective action, methodically dotted the i's and crossed the t's in shaping the law, policy, and procedural components of the case against Saddam that President Bush used after 9/11. That there isn’t a stronger legal-rational foundation for Obama’s proposed action on Syria, despite Obama having had ample opportunity to build the case, is an indicator of another aspect of Obama's poor leadership as President. Using social theorist Max Weber’s typology, the modern Western norm is legal-rational authority with a few notable charismatic exceptions like Adolf Hitler. However, Obama has often preferred charismatic authority over legal-rational authority. Ms. Kaufman's analysis of the surprisingly poor legal-rational basis for Obama's proposed punitive action on Syria recalls that Obama also radically stretched the mandate of the already questionable and novel Responsibility to Protect foundation for the Libya intervention.

Any functional social unit – the ‘free world’ version of the international community qualifies – requires order with enforced norms and values. Order can be in different forms; even dogmatic libertarians accept that a version of social order is necessary. When any social unit lacks leadership that can enforce order and organize collective action, then it becomes anomic. An anomic social unit becomes chaotic and dysfunctional. It internally estranges, balkanizes, and atomizes. It breaks down and collapses. As much as anything else, that’s the phenomenon we are seeing with Obama's missteps with the Syria dilemma. A hegemonic order of independent nations that has always relied on American leadership for solidarity has been infected by poor American leadership. Setting aside the merits of Obama’s proposal, the struggle of the US to enforce norms and values and organize collective action in the international community is very worrying.

Today's Syria news is that terrorists seized the historic Syrian Christian village of Maaloula. Obama's hands-on while hands-off position on Syria is greatly eroding America's moral authority that had been earned back by American steadfastness in post-war Iraq. The Syrian conflict between a tyrannical autocratic regime and Islamic terrorists is an enormous grinding humanitarian crisis that is crying out for a humanitarian, peace-operations intervention of the kind that UN Ambassador Samantha Power once advocated strongly for in Rwanda and characterized America's UN-certified post-war mission in Iraq, especially the Counterinsurgency "surge" in which Americans and Iraqis together defeated the terrorist invasion of post-Saddam Iraq. According to the White House briefing, Obama has actively involved the US in the Syrian conflict from the start, yet has refrained from doing so in ways that confront the deadly forces acting upon the Syrian people. Now, Obama intends to order a US military action on Syria that will have a direct destructive impact on the Syrian conflict that will advantage the terrorists, yet he has explicitly stated that his intent is not to intervene in a way that solves the Syrian conflict. It recalls that the US was instrumental in the regime change in Libya yet has declined to substantially aid Libya's struggling post-war transition. As a liberal, the illiberal hypocrisy and moral bankruptcy of the Obama administration after the genuine ethical liberal leadership of President Bush is stunning. Even if she can only do it as an impractical moral posture, why hasn't Samantha Power used her UN position to forcefully advocate for an effective humanitarian, peace-operations intervention in the Syria crisis of the kind she called for in Rwanda and we successfully achieved in Iraq? It turns out Samantha Power is not a genuine liberal like President Bush. She's just an amoral partisan like the rest of the Obama officials. Lee Smith offers a similar critique.

[11JUL16 note: When I wrote this post in 2013, I did not adequately distinguish Islamic terrorist "rebels" from the moderate, relatively liberal Syrian "rebels" who need help from the West. I was also uninformed about the Assad regime's reported strategy of leveraging its terrorist ties to attack moderate factions and dissuade Western engagement.]

Thomas Friedman: Same War, Different Country. "In Iraq, we toppled the dictator and then, after making every mistake in the book, we got the parties to write a new social contract. To make that possible, we policed the lines between sects and eliminated a lot of the worst jihadists in the Shiite and Sunni ranks. We acted on the ground as the “army of the center.” But then we left before anything could take root."

Ambassador Ryan Crocker's situation report on Syria. He recommends we should work harder around Syria to contain the damage to Syria, but we should not intervene inside Syria. Ambassador Crocker was second only to General Petraeus among the American officials who led the Counterinsurgency "surge" in Iraq. If any other academic made the same recommendation, I would weigh it with some skepticism, but I trust Crocker's judgement has steel. His money quote regarding Iraq: "Al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria have merged, and car bombs in Iraq are virtually a daily occurrence as these groups seek to reignite a sectarian civil war. The United States has a Strategic Framework Agreement with Iraq. We must use it to engage more deeply with the Iraqi government, helping it take the steps to ensure internal cohesion. This was a major challenge during my tenure as ambassador, 2007-2009, and the need now is critical." More about our SFA with Iraq.

Be cautious and suspicious of Russia's proposal. President Jimmy Carter, 1980 State of the Union Address:
Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.
President Carter was, of course, addressing inimical Soviet machinations in the Middle East. It can be assumed that the Russians under Putin's leadership are as interested as the Russian Soviets in wresting and replacing American influence in the region with a Russian-dominated order. The regional security guarantee of the Carter Doctrine with the later addition of the Reagan Corollary to the Carter Doctrine has been the cornerstone of US foreign policy in the Middle East for decades. It appears that President Obama is on the cusp of reversing the long-standing Middle East policy he inherited and handing over to the Russians what has been denied them by the previous 3 Republican and 2 Democratic Presidential administrations, just to clean up escape the mess Obama made over Syria.

Mad Minerva expresses the US's Syria problem in gifs.

All the warnings from Obama officials about Syria and defense of their argument for bombing Syria (eg, intel does not work on a court-of-law proof standard, Syrian cooperation only compelled by credible military threat, secondary risks if failure to enforce, can't trust the brutal dictator, etc) applied to the Iraq problem, yet the Democrats scorned Bush officials when the same things were said about Iraq.

Some old-fashioned back-of-the-envelope intel analysis.

The plan for Syria's chemical weapons can be a success — if 'success' is defined correctly. With Iraq, President Bush faithfully and successfully followed the procedure to resolve the Iraq problem that he inherited from President Clinton. What did that include? Regime change mandate. A credible military threat that was the next step up from Op Desert Fox’s penultimate bombing – ie, ground invasion. A very high and strict standard of proof for Saddam to meet regarding Iraq's "unaccounted for" proscribed weapons that had been elevated during the Cllinton administration in response to Saddam’s belligerence, resistance, and exposed evasions. A broad spectrum of requirements for Iraq under the UNSC resolutions, covering issues such as Iraq's humanitarian and terrorism problems, that extended beyond proscribed weapons. So how can President Obama succeed with Syria where Presidents Bush Senior, Clinton, and Bush ‘failed’ with Iraq? (… said for sake of argument. We actually succeeded resolving the Iraq problem under Bush by achieving every requirement set forth by Clinton — ie, Iraq in compliance, Iraq no longer a threat, and regime change.) Simple: by making Syria’s compliance and disarmament test more limited and easier than the Gulf War ceasefire compliance and disarmament test for Iraq. Lower the compliance and disarmament proof standard and narrow the requirements for Syria, eg, studiously ignore the humanitarian and terrorism problems with Syria that were bases for strict requirements for Iraq. Avoid placing too heavy a proof burden and presumption of guilt on Syria. Essentially, President Obama can 'succeed' with Syria's chemical weapons by adopting the position of Saddam’s defenders in 2002-2003, which I guess Obama has done by ceding the lead on Syria to Russia.

Related: The Constitutional rule of law for war was skirted by President Clinton, reinforced by President Bush, and degraded by President Obama (sequel to this post), Quick reaction to the proposed AUMF against ISIS, The Fall of Mosul and legal authority for anti-ISIS strikes, and Links after the Chris Stevens assassination (regarding the Libya crisis).



Additional data and discourse:

S.J.Res.21 – Authorization for the Use of Military Force Against the Government of Syria to Respond to Use of Chemical Weapons, 06SEP13. Lawfare coverage.

Kyle Orton criticizes the Obama Doctrine. David Hazony's take on the "Mind of Obama". Michael Doran connects the dots on "Obama's Secret Iran Strategy".

David Francis describes the Obama administration's broken lead-from-behind foreign policy. Excerpt:
These critics are not coming from conservative think thanks. They’re coming from former Obama administration officials.

POINTED CRITICISMS
For instance, Vali Nasr, who served as senior adviser to Richard Holbrooke when he was ambassador to Pakistan and Afghanistan, said this of Obama’s Afghan policies: “Their primary concern was how any action in Afghanistan or the Middle East would play on the nightly news, or which talking point it would give the Republicans. The Obama administration’s reputation for competence on foreign policy has less to do with its accomplishments in Afghanistan or the Middle East than with how U.S. actions in that region have been reshaped to accommodate partisan political concerns.”

Anne-Marie Slaughter, director of policy planning at the State Department from 2009 to 2011, said this about Obama's Syria policy: "Obama must realize the tremendous damage he will do to the United States and to his legacy if he fails to act. He should understand the deep and lasting damage done when the gap between words and deeds becomes too great to ignore, when those who wield power are exposed as not saying what they mean or meaning what they say."

And Rosa Brookes, a former senior adviser at the Pentagon, attacked Obama for his failure to outline a broad, sweeping foreign policy strategy. "The Obama administration initially waffled over the Arab Spring, unable to decide whether and when to support the status quo and when to support the protesters. The United States used military force to help oust Libya’s Muammar al-Qaddafi, but insisted at first that this wasn’t the purpose of the airstrikes — and without any clear rationale being articulated, the use of force in seemingly parallel situations seems to have been ruled out."
Fred Hiatt describes President Obama's pattern of political shows of action that quickly peter out and rationalizing inadequate responses while the crisis worsens in the Middle East. Excerpt:
On those rare occasions when political pressure or the horrors of Syrian suffering threatened to overwhelm any excuse for inaction, he promised action, in statements or White House leaks: training for the opposition, a safe zone on the Turkish border. Once public attention moved on, the plans were abandoned or scaled back to meaningless proportions (training 50 soldiers per year, no action on the Turkish border).

Perversely, the worse Syria became, the more justified the president seemed for staying aloof; steps that might have helped in 2012 seemed ineffectual by 2013, and actions that could have saved lives in 2013 would not have been up to the challenge presented by 2014.
David Sanger describes Obama officials Seeking Lessons from Iraq. But Which Ones? The article shows that their bias against the Iraq mission has handicapped policymakers in the Obama administration with the consequence that President Obama's various errors with Iraq, Libya, Iran, and Syria have resulted from or at least were enabled by the OIF stigma, the keystone premise of Obama's foreign affairs.

Hassan Hassan criticizes Western "leftists or anti-imperialists" for "fighting the Iraq war through Syria" and thus enabling the humanitarian toll in Syria caused by the Assad regime and its allies, especially Iran and Russia. Austin Mackell notes stigmatization of the Iraq intervention, a mission which he opposed, prevents peace operations with Syria and Libya, which he advocates. Jamie Palmer notes the same.

Syrian pro-democracy activist Ammar Abdulhamid blames President Obama for the Syria crisis and cites President Bush's Freedom Agenda and Operation Iraqi Freedom to explain that Obama's course deviation in order to 'lead from behind' has gravely harmed the moderate reformers in the Middle East who relied on American leadership of the free world.

Ellliot Abrams criticizes The Man Who Broke the Middle East. (h/t)

Holly Yan asks, How did this happen? Iraq, Syria, Gaza and Libya all in flames.

Against the tide, Waltz and Woodrow Moss explain Five Reasons Why Cooperating With Moscow On Syria Is A Bad Idea. The problem is their 5 reasons assume a paradigm that's obviated by the stigma applied to OIF, which manifested the principles of American leadership of the free world that characterize their article.

With the OIF paradigm cut off politically, Sam Heller implicates the feckless approach by the Obama administration and lays out the stark choices for the US "proxy war" with Syria.

Tom Nichols criticizes the passive-aggressive "exit strategy" excuse for avoiding intervention with Syria. Like many other Syria intervention advocates, he tries to reinvent the UNSCR 688 enforcement model, which is quixotic unless the Iraq intervention is de-stigmatized.

Faysal Itani offers a prescription for the Syria crisis that recalls the OIF COIN "surge" yet while skirting the direct military presence at the core of the OIF COIN "surge".

Anne Pierce calls for OIF COIN "surge" measures for Syria. Pierce knows the OIF stigma cuts off her prescription, yet she refuses to relitigate the Iraq issue in the politics to reset the premises needed to effectuate her proposal.

Nadia Schadlow explains the necessity of sufficient peace operations with an illustration of the compounding harms that have resulted from President Obama's withdrawal and withholding of peace operations from Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Oddly though, Schadlow says, "The complete withdrawal [by President Obama from Iraq] was equivalent to President Bush’s now infamous “mission accomplished” speech in 2003," when in fact, that speech marked the transition from OIF's major combat operations against Iraq to OIF's peace operations with Iraq, which is the very policy that Schadlow is advocating.

Scott Cooper, Aaron Stein, and Aaron Taylor take liberties in minimizing the costs and risks and obscure the context of the UNSCR 688 no-fly zones with Iraq to work around OIF stigma in order to call for no-fly zones with Syria.

Andrew Tabler's proposal to President Trump to grapple with the Syria crisis repurposes the 1990s enforcement measures employed against the Saddam regime.

The US is circling back to the UNSCR 687 disarmament process with Assad and facing the same Russian-led obstacles we faced enforcing disarmament with Saddam.

Michael Gerson calls for reviving American leadership of the free world and the liberal international order that was undermined by President Obama beginning with his conscious deviation from President Bush, and may be further undermined by President Trump. Gerson marks Obama's anti-OIF response to the Syria crisis as a key turning point.

Lawyer John Hinderaker at Powerlineblog points out that the rationale for confronting ISIS was more fully manifested with the rationale for confronting Saddam, yet the same Democrats who opposed Bush now support Obama. (h/t)

Marc Thiessen compares current events to President Bush's foresight in his 2007 warning about the risks of a premature withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.

Peter Van Buren's disagreeable bias is clear, but setting that aside, the basic sequence in his account of current events in the Middle East is informative.

Emma Sky on the next step for Iraq and the Middle East.

I agree with Senator Tom Cotton's take.

Pretty good rundown of ISIS origin story by a Brown senior who says he'll be a Marine.

What ISIS Really Wants by Graeme Wood. (h/t)

Book says AQI and ISIS are creations of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

See nacllcan fisk in the comments of Stephen Walt's case for accepting ISIS.

COIN luminary David Kilcullen discusses ISIS.

The January 2014 New Yorker interview by David Remnick where President Obama diminished the ISIS threat as "jayvee". (h/t) Obama's analogy wasn't wrong, but when a junior varsity squad is provided sufficient growth conditions, such as the opportunities opened by the Arab Spring that were enabled by Obama's feckless leadership, the "jayvee" squad graduates to become the varsity team.

Iraq's Kurds want help from the US to fight ISIS but the State Department is scuffling while saying no. Update: The West is slowly coming around with direct support to the Kurds, air strikes on ISIS, and PM Maliki is out.

More from the Ambassador Ryan Crocker about the ISIS crisis.

A good summary of our choices facing ISIS by zenpundit.

Video of Columbia SIWPS panel, ISIS in Iraq, Syria, and the United States. Panelist Austin Long discusses the potential of the airstrikes on ISIS.

Columbia Professor Jeffrey Sachs advocates an exclusively soft-power approach to ISIS.

Columbia Professor Nacos issues a call to action vs ISIS and I call her out, and again.

Western women of ISIS recruit, propagandize, and fulfill traditional wife/mom household role. They are serious people on a serious mission who believe the West is weak in character, frivolous and trivial.

An open letter from Eiynah, a liberal Pakistani woman, to Ben Affleck. This open letter was recommended to me with the description, “This letter to the leader of IS was signed by over 100 Islamic scholars across several nations, it condemns the actions of IS and provides a good overview and detailed argument for why the group is not following the precepts of Islam.”

This article by Andrew Peek and this article by Jordan Hirsch are infuriating. Two young GOP foreign policy academics have adopted the Russian disinformative conflation of Bush and Obama's foreign affairs and emotive denigration of the Iraq intervention. Peek is calling for Republicans to go with the flow and use the OIF stigma to throw out US liberal leadership of the free world, exactly as the Russian worldview would have it. Hirsch advocates that US "foreign-policy leaders must forswear further Iraqs but affirm U.S. primacy in the global order”. Brian Dunn shares my disgust with Hirsch.

Michael Anton follows up his populist narrative (h/t) in support of Trump, written as Publius Decius Mus, during the presidential campaign with this more sophisticated piece as Ben Rhodes' successor. I guess Anton is the "White House official" whose criticism of President Bush "begins with the Iraq war, one of the greatest foreign policy mistakes in American history”.

Carrying forward the trend from the Obama administration, Trump Secretary of State Rex Tillerson downgrades the priority level of human rights in US foreign policy.

Paul Miller advocates reviving American leadership of the free world yet while disclaiming the paradigmatic Iraq intervention, thus effectively endorsing the very premise discrediting his advocacy. Miller then doubles down on his error. Eliot Cohen does the same.

Alex Weisiger and Keren Yarhi-Milo write What American Credibility Myth? How and Why Reputation Matters. The article explains Saddam's decision to breach in 2003 was based on his perception of American weakness over the two decades leading up to the 2002-2003 ultimatum and discusses President Obama's decision to tank America's reputation in the Syria crisis.